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الأحد، 19 مارس 2017

DAX FUTURES ANALYSIS

The bulls tentatively remain in control of DAX futures but seeing a softer open that should help to be a buying opportunity.

With the March contract expiring today we move on to looking at the June contract.

The market pulled strongly higher on Thursday but closed well off the highs and the intraday dip has continued today.

The daily chart of June 2017 shows that pressure continues to be put on the four month uptrend which is creaking.

However there is a basis of support around 12,050 which the bulls will be eying now as a potential entry again. The hourly chart shows the momentum has unwound to an area where the recent corrections have formed support on the RSI and also the hourly MACD lines are retreating back towards neutral.

However a low now needs to form and buying on the formation of support is always the more cautious way to play a market that has been tinged with uncertainty over the past few weeks.

As long as the DAX June 2017 contract holds support above 11,950 the bulls will retain a degree of control, with the breakout support at 11,920 being key.

الأحد، 5 مارس 2017

DAX FUTURES ANALYSIS

Strong moves higher on the DAX tend to be followed by minor corrective phases and this seems to again be the case.

The unwinding corrective move has set in as the market has opened below the support of yesterday’s low at 12,038.

Yesterday’s “bearish spinning top” is a mildly corrective candle and is helping to unwind some of the overbought momentum built up from the hugely strong bull move on Wednesday.

The daily chart shows breakout support at 11,895 and the market could now drift back towards this as a basis of support.

The medium term uptrend comes in today at 11,835. The daily RSI is unwinding back from back and has tended to find support in the 50/60 range and this corrective move is likely to be a buying opportunity once more.

On the hourly chart there is a mini support band 11,965/,12030 but if this is breached the band 11,850/11,895 comes back into play.

Waiting for a buying opportunity rather than selling short seems to be the best strategy as the trend remains so strong on the DAX.

الاثنين، 16 يناير 2017

MARKETS CAUTIOUS WITH STERLING

There is more of a cautious sentiment that is taking hold this morning. The US is on public holiday for Martin Luther King Day, but the safe haven plays are in favour as the yen and gold are pushing higher. These cautious markets are coming as the sterling is under pressure once more as the prospect of a hard Brexit has spooked the market. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is making a speech tomorrow which is expected to lay out expectation for a “hard Brexit”. Any time this term is banded around, sterling gets hit and subsequently the pound is hitting lows not seen since the flash crash of early October. Equity markets are also in cautious mode with this, although with the weakness of sterling, FTSE 100 is set to outperform due to its negative correlation with sterling (around 70% of FTSE 100 revenues are generated in foreign currency).

الجمعة، 13 يناير 2017

FOCUS STILL ON TRUMP AS CHINA TRADE DATA HELPS SENTIMENT

Forex markets continue to run off Trump’s press conference rhetoric from Wednesday, whilst the China trade data overnight has helped to stabilise sentiment. With a speech from Janet Yellen passing without reference to the US economy or monetary policy, the focus remains on Trump. Despite picking up off the lows of yesterday’s session, the US dollar remains under corrective pressure today as the market is still taking a steer from his press conference in which he struck a protectionist tone and included little detail on his fiscal spending plans. US Treasury yields have curbed a decline for now as the US 2s/10s spread has stabilised around 118 basis points, however equally yields have also not shown too much appetite to push higher once more (which would help to support the dollar). The near term level to watch today on the US 10 year Treasury yield is at 2.40% which is a minor lower high and a break above it would suggest there may be a turn in sentiment. Markets are taking the glass half full with the mixed China trade data overnight, in which dollar denominated exports fell more than expected at -6.1% (-3.5% YoY exp) however, the imports were better than expected at +3.1% (+2.7% YoY exp), the latter helping to support commodities today. Sterling is back under pressure following the announcement that Prime Minister Theresa May is to make a major speech on Brexit and promoting a “Global Britain”. Markets tend to recoil against sterling any time the prospect of a hard Brexit increases.

الخميس، 12 يناير 2017

TRUMP PRESS CONFERENCE DRIVING A CORRECTION ON THE DOLLAR

Once more Donald Trump has driven market direction. However, this time for the dollar, it was less about what he said and more about what he did not say. Trump has been the catalyst for a correction on Treasury yields and the dollar which is impacting across forex and commodities. In his first formal press conference since his acceptance speech back in November, markets were looking for some further clarity over his spending plans, the prospect of which had previously provided such rocket fuel for Treasury yields and hence the dollar. Subsequently, markets were left in limbo and Treasury yields have fallen away, with the two year yield back towards 1.15% the lowest since mid-December (well down from the 1.30% high) and the 10 year yield below 2.32% and the lowest since the end of November (back from the 2.64% high). The U trade weighted dollar has also been hit and is over 1.5% back from yesterday’s high.

الأحد، 8 يناير 2017

Donald Trump and good Russian ties

US President-elect Donald Trump has posted a series of tweets condemning those who oppose good relations with Russia as "'stupid' people, or fools". Mr Trump vowed to work with Russia "to solve some of the many... pressing problems and issues of the WORLD!" His comments came after an intelligence report said Russia's president had tried to aid a Trump election victory.

Mr Trump said Democrats were to blame for "gross negligence" in allowing their servers to be hacked.

In a series of tweets on Saturday, Mr Trump said that having a good relationship with Russia was "no bad thing" and that "only 'stupid' people, or fools, would think that it is bad!" He added that Russia would respect the US more when he was president.

Mr Trump said frequently during his election campaign that he wanted to improve ties with Russia.

He has also repeatedly questioned US intelligence claims of Russian hacking in the election campaign.

Mr Trump tweeted on Saturday: "Only reason the hacking of the poorly defended DNC is discussed is that the loss by the Dems was so big that they are totally embarrassed!" He was referring to the Democratic National Committee, whose email accounts were hacked during the election campaign.

الجمعة، 6 يناير 2017

DOLLAR await NON-FARM PAYROLLS

The dollar has come under pressure in the first week of 2017 as downside pressure on Treasury yields and measures to curb yuan weakness in China have driven some profit taking on some of the recent gains. This dollar weakness has been seen across the forex majors and on commodity prices too. There has been an interesting breakdown in the 2s/10s spread on US Treasury yields which is back below 120 basis points for the first time in almost two months, a move that has added corrective pressure on the dollar. However the early morning moves have been positive for the dollar as it is clawing back losses with traders looking to position ahead of Non-farm Payrolls. Traditionally in front of Non-farm Payrolls, markets will begin to consolidate, so the early dollar gains today could be an element of that. However, after the ADP employment change came with a slightly negative surprise and it will be interesting to see if this is a sign of a weaker payrolls report, which would see the dollar coming under further pressure.

الخميس، 5 يناير 2017

FALLING TREASURY YIELDS DRIVING A DOLLAR CORRECTION

The outlook for the dollar continues to be driven by Treasury yields and with the yields dropping back the dollar is coming under corrective pressure. With the 10 year Treasury yield falling back to 2.40% (which is the lowest since 9th December) the US Trade Weighted Dollar Index has also fallen away and is testing the support of the late December low at 101.90. A closing breach of this level would confirm the dollar having become corrective. This move on Treasury yields is not being driven by the FOMC minutes, which actually showed a concern that expansive fiscal policy might drive a need for steeper tightening. This is seen as a clear nod towards President-elect Trump, although he was not mentioned by name. Equities tend to struggle during tighter monetary policy and there is a mildly lower move seen in Europe today.

الثلاثاء، 3 يناير 2017

Solar power dominate

Solar power is now cheaper than coal in some parts of the world. In less than a decade, it’s likely to be the lowest-cost option almost everywhere.

In 2016, countries from Chile to the United Arab Emirates broke records with deals to generate electricity from sunshine for less than 3 cents a kilowatt-hour, half the average global cost of coal power. Now, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Mexico are planning auctions and tenders for this year, aiming to drop prices even further. Taking advantage: Companies such as Italy’s Enel SpA and Dublin’s Mainstream Renewable Power, who gained experienced in Europe and now seek new markets abroad as subsidies dry up at home.

Since 2009, solar prices are down 62 percent, with every part of the supply chain trimming costs. That’s help cut risk premiums on bank loans, and pushed manufacturing capacity to record levels. By 2025, solar may be cheaper than using coal on average globally, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

“These are game-changing numbers, and it’s becoming normal in more and more markets," said Adnan Amin, International Renewable Energy Agency ’s director general, an Abu Dhabi-based intergovernmental group. Every time you double capacity, you reduce the price by 20 percent.