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الأحد، 11 ديسمبر 2016

EUR/USD Forecast Dec. 12-16

EUR/USD was hit hard by dovish Draghi and fell back to lower ground. Fresh PMIs, as well as other events, await the euro. Will it continue lower? Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
The ECB decided to reduce the amount of monthly bond buys to 60 billion from April 2017 but also chose to extend the program towards the end of the year and to loosen a few limits. Coupled with a dovish tone about the path of inflation, EUR/USD eventually plunged. Earlier, Italian voters rejected the constitutional changes proposed by Renzi, in another blow to mainstream politics. But here, the euro recovered quickly. In the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, as markets shift their attention to the FED.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.10 is a round number and significant resistance. 1.0960, which supported the pair in early 2016 worked as resistance in October. 1.0850, which worked as support during the same month, serves as support.
The post-Draghi low 1.0780 replaces 1.08 as support. 1.0710 is the next support line on the chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015.
1.0690 is the post-Trump high. 1.0570 is the bottom of the range seen afterwards.
Further below, the 2016 low of 1.0520 and the 2015 low of 1.0460 provide further support – it is the last line in the sand.

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