US DOLLAR LOOKING CORRECTIVE AS TREASURY YIELDS FALL

After a number of corrective signals failed to put the skids on the dollar rally in the past week or so, the most significant signals so far are beginning to suggest that profit-taking on the dollar will be taken more seriously this time. The driver of the recovery had been the sharp rally on Treasury yields in recent weeks, but this move is threatening retrace, with the two year and ten year yields lower today. This move is showing through on the US trade weighted dollar index which after a couple of days of consolidation is beginning to pull lower today. A close below last week’s low at 100.65 would confirm the near term correction. Markets will also be focusing on the key OPEC meeting’s this week with the main meeting on Wednesday. However the fringe meeting of members and Non-OPEC members (ie. basically Russia) will take place today and there are suggestions that Saudi Arabia (one of the major voiced in OPEC) will not take part, which would reduce the impact of this meeting and will make traders even more nervous. The oil price will be very volatile in the coming days and this could impact on market sentiment. It will also be interesting to see how the US returns from the Thanksgiving holiday.